Q2 2014 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q2 2014. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

The Northwest European Methanol contract price for Q2 2014 was settled late last week, down €33/mt from Q1 2014. Producers had clearly been hoping to keep prices at a high for a further quarter, whilst the dramatic fall in prices in Asia caused European spot prices to fall heavily in recent weeks, so consumers were clearly hoping for an even bigger reduction in the contract price. Current prices are still among the highest in the last 5 years and the market will depend on what happens globally over the next quarter. Demand in Europe is reasonably buoyant but stable. If Europe attracts cargoes from Asia plus a restart of Iranian material into EU ports then there could be further and larger corrections in Q3.

 

Acetic Acid & Acetyls

The fall in methanol prices has been counterbalanced with an increase in natural gas prices and consequently producers have increased the Acetic Acid price by €20 per tonne for Q2 2014.

VAM: European VAM has hit record highs due to extreme tightness in the market. There has been force majeure announcements at some US plants coupled with in Spain and UK. This will add further pressure to VAM prices during 2014

 

Ethanol:

There have been some downwards movements in the Ethylene contract price during Q1 and into Q2 2014. Producers have applied these decreases on other ethylene based derivatives but Ethanol is expected to remain stable for Q2 2014. Many US producers have cut production rates or idled plants as a result of higher feedstock costs (corn) and this will result in higher Ethanol prices in the US. High quality synthetic material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2014-15. INEOS acquisition of Sasol Solvents Germany GmbH is going through the competition authorities in Europe. This acquisition involves the following products: Isopropyl alcohol (IPA), secondary Butyl alcohol (SBA), Methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and Ethanol. The acquisition is expected to be finalised towards the end of Q2

 

Ethyl Acetate:

Even though Europe is structurally short on Ethyl Acetate, as it is limited to only one major local producer, regular imports were expected to continue from Mexico, India and Brazil and keep the market balanced. However imports from India have declined in recent weeks leading to tightness in the market and producers are only supplying contracted customers. Consequently prices have begun to increase although these prices may attract extra volumes into Europe, thereby mitigating these recent increases. Market is expected to fluctuate up and down during the course of Q2. 

 

Butyl Acetate market is balanced and prices are relatively stable although there may be some small increases on the back of propylene increases.

 

Isopropanol

IPA demand is expected to stabilise n Q2 but prices will increase on the back of propylene.  Propylene availability was not yet affecting availability of IPA, but going forward, sources said there could be a bit more pressure as there would be competition between various derivatives for the same propylene molecules. Prices are expected to follow the same pattern as 2013.

 

Acetone & Ketones

Acetone market and prices are driven by Phenol production (co-product). Phenol production rates have increased on the back of positive sentiment for Phenol and this will lead to extra Acetone molecules being available. If this is the case, coupled with extra imports, Acetone prices are expected to soften during Q2. Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.

 

MEK/MIBK demand has improved. Prices are expected to increase slightly going during Q2.

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

European Hydrocarbons and aromatics will continue to remain volatile and prices could continue on their bumpy road. Lighter crude feedstock into crackers has reduced output and Toluene has been diverted into the gasoline pool for the holiday driving season.

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

MEG prices have started to slow as the seasonal demand nears and end.

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

New capacity in Asia has yet to come on stream. Prices have rolled over and are expected to remain stable during 2014. The new global capacity may lead to price reductions entering 2015. 

 

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels of Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Acrylonitrile demand in Asia is very weak resulting in falling prices which will inevitably lead to plants being turned down. This will result in a tightening supply as producers reduce output, which in turn could tighten the Acetonitrile market.

 

Methylene Chloride

All plants are running normally and no major changes are expected at this time.

 

AdBlue^® Urea Solution and Automotive Products

Urea prices have stabilised/reduced during Q1 and into Q2 as demand is outstripped by global production. Price level of AdBlue^® Urea Solution are expected to remain fairly flat. 

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce Knox emissions. We are the only licensed Irish manufacturer of this product, and we have begun producing product in Australia through a franchise partner.

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) now has added TOLUENE from ESSAR OIL (Formerly Shell Stanlow) to their portfolio of products and principals. If you require more information please contact me.

 

During Q1 2014 several new Brockley developments have come on stream:

¨       Our new AdBlue® plant has been commissioned which will more than double our capacity.

¨       We have moved our depot into a new purpose built warehouse on Johnston Logistics site.

¨       Our new web-based accounts package has gone live.

 

 

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

Patrick Short

8^th April 2014

 

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Brockley Group

Mob: +353 87 2426720
Tel: +  353 1 8392016
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie

 

Q1 2014 Market Commentary

 

First of all, we would like to wish you a Very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

 

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q1 2014. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

The Northwest European Methanol contract price for Q1 2014 was settled late last week, up €37/mt from Q4 2013. Initial market reactions saw the increase as reasonable with one market participant saying "I think it was the fairest settlement we have had in four quarters."  Tightness in the methanol market has continued throughout 2013, and does not really show any signs of diminishing.  The main reasons for the tightness have been outages at major producer sites and feedstock curtailments in the main production areas, combined with the inability to bring Iranian product into US or Europe. There has been no real fall-off in demand despite the higher selling ideas, and that has led to an extremely snug market, with spot prices reaching levels not seen for 5 years.  The Q1 ECP is also the highest since early 2008.

 

Acetic Acid & Acetyls

Due to the price increases of methanol and natural gas, producers have increased the Acetic Acid price by €30 per tonne for Q1 2014. As you can see from the attached slide, both gas and methanol have been on a relentless increase for the last couple of years.  BP announced that they had developed a new Acetic Acid technology which could be the biggest breakthrough in acetic acid technology in the past 40 years.

VAM: Celanese have announced the closure of its VAM plant in Tarragona, Spain following on the closure of the INEOS plant in the UK. This will add further pressure to VAM prices during 2014

 

Ethanol:

There have been some upwards movements in the Ethylene contract price during Q4 and into Q1 2014. Producers have applied these increases on other ethylene based derivatives but Ethanol is expected to remain stable for Q1 2014. Many US producers have cut production rates or idled plants as a result of higher feedstock costs (corn) and this will result in higher Ethanol prices in the US. High quality synthetic material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2013-14. SASOL had announced closure of its HERNE, Germany synthetic Ethanol plant in November. However INEOS has agreed to purchase Sasol Solvents Germany GmbH. The acquisition is subject to approval by the relevant competition regulators. SASOL's Moers site produces isopropyl alcohol (IPA) and secondary butyl alcohol (SBA), which is upgraded on site into methyl ethyl ketone (MEK). SASOL's Herne site manufactures ethanol and isopropyl alcohol.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

Even though Europe is structurally short on Ethyl Acetate, as it is limited to only one major local producer, regular imports are expected to continue from India and Brazil and keep the market balanced. Prices have remained relatively stable during Q4 despite higher feedstock costs as suppliers try to gain market share. Q1 expectation is continuing stability but producers may try and push through an increase based on increasing feedstock (€15-40). 

 

Butyl Acetate market is balanced although prices have increased slightly. Further increases due to raw materials could be seen in Q1 3014.

 

Isopropanol

IPA demand is expected to increase in Q1 due to seasonal de-icing requirement and prices will increase on the back of propylene increases. Prices are expected to follow the same pattern as 2013.

 

Acetone & Ketones

Acetone market and prices are driven by Phenol production (co-product). Phenol production rates are running at c.65-70% as demand is quoted as stagnant. The key raw material, Benzene, is in balanced supply but there is pressure to increase prices.  Acetone prices are expected to follow the same pattern as 2012 but from a higher base, therefore price increases are expected as supply tightens. New Acetone builds planned in Asia will not affect the European market.  Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.

 

MEK/MIBK demand has improved. Prices are expected to increase slightly going into Q1.

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

European Hydrocarbons and aromatics will continue to remain volatile and prices could continue on their bumpy road. Lighter crude feedstock into crackers has reduced output and Toluene was diverted into producing Benzene. While there have been fewer imports into Europe and Toluene, Xylene and other hydrocarbons have fallen in price since the start of 2013 but increases of 5-8% are expected going into Q1 2014.

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

MEG prices have started to increase again as the seasonal demand kicks in and ethylene raw material increases. European trade sanctions against IRAN have resulted in reduced imports and some plant closures.

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

New capacity in Asia has yet to come on stream. Prices decreased slightly during Q4 and are expected to remain stable going into 2014. The new global capacity may lead to price reductions during 2014. 

 

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels of Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Acrylonitrile demand is very weak and needs a global economic recovery. This will result in a tightening supply as producers reduce output, which in turn could tighten the Acetonitrile market.

 

Methylene Chloride

All plants are running normally and no major changes are expected at this time. 

AdBlue^® Urea Solution and Automotive Products

Urea prices have increased during Q4 from low level in Q3. Further increase are expected in Q1 as the export window from China closes which will then see an increase level of prices for AdBlue^® Urea Solution. 

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only licensed Irish manufacturer of this product, and we have begun producing product in Australia through a franchise partner.

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) now has added TOLUENE from ESSAR OIL (Formerly Shell Stanlow) to their portfolio of products and principals. If you require more information please contact me.

 

Q1 2014 will continue an exciting period for Brockley as many new developments come on stream:

¨       Our new AdBlue® plant will be commissioned of which will more than double our capacity.

¨       We will move our depot into a new purpose built warehouse on Johnston Logistics site.

¨       Our new web-based accounts package will go live.

 

 

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

Patrick Short

23^rd December 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Brockley Group

Mob: +353 87 2426720
Tel: +  353 1 8392016
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie

 

 

Q4 2013 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q4 2013. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

General:

Demand for most products continues to prove weak and producers are determined to cap production levels. We are working in a European downturn and producers are relying on growth in emerging markets but Asian demand still remains weak.

 

Methanol:

Methanol Q3 contract price was rolled over from Q2 as the gas supply chain eased in Trinidad, where around 15% of the global supply originates. Inability to move Iranian molecules into Europe still remains (about 12% of the global supply originates there). No major outages are forecast and plants are running normally.  European demand is stable and Q4 contract prices are expected to rollover or have a slight increase

 

Acetic Acid:

All major productions units are working normally and the market is well supplied. This good supply position has mitigated any Methanol price increases and resulted in a roll-over in Acetic Acid prices for Q3. Barring any unforeseen outages or large increase in Methanol then Acetic Acid prices are expected to remain stable for most of 2013.

 

Ethanol:

Ethylene contract prices increased in August by €40 and further increases are expected as we enter Q4. Producers have applied this increase on other ethylene based derivatives and an increase of €25-40 can be expected in September with possible further increase to come.  Many US producers have cut production rates or idled plants as a result of higher feedstock costs (corn) and this will result in higher Ethanol prices in the US. High quality synthetic material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2013-14.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

Even though Europe is structurally short on Ethyl Acetate, as it is limited to only one major local producer, regular imports are expected to continue from India and Brazil and keep the market balanced. Prices have remained relatively stable during Q3 despite higher feedstock costs as suppliers try to gain market share. The new plant in Saudi Arabia has started during Q2 and this will balance possible shortages of Indian material as the government has decided to blend ethanol into fuel thus tightening raw material supplies. Q4 expectation is continuing stability but producers may try and push through an increase based on increasing feedstock (€15-40). 

 

Butyl Acetate market is balanced and prices remain stable.

 

Isopropanol

IPA supply/demand is balanced and will continue in that manner. Prices softened slightly going into Q3 but are starting to increase on the back of propylene increases. Prices are expected to follow the same pattern as 2012, more or less which means that prices are expected to take an upturn in Q4 and going into 2014.

 

Acetone & Ketones

Acetone market and prices are driven by Phenol production (co-product). Phenol production rates are running at c.70% as demand is quoted as stagnant. The key raw material, Benzene, is in balanced supply but there is pressure to increase prices.  Acetone prices are expected to follow the same pattern as 2012 but from a higher base, therefore price increases are expected as supply tightens. New Acetone builds planned in Asia will not affect the European market.  Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.

 

MEK/MIBK demand has improved. Prices are expected to increase slightly going into Q4.

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

European Hydrocarbons and aromatics will continue to remain volatile and prices could continue on their bumpy road. Lighter crude feedstock into crackers has reduced output and Toluene was diverted into producing Benzene. While there have been fewer imports into Europe and Toluene, Xylene and other hydrocarbons have fallen in price since the start of 2013 but increases of 5-8% are expected going into Q4 and 2014.

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

MEG prices have started to increase again as the seasonal demand kicks in and ethylene raw material increases. European trade sanctions against IRAN have resulted in reduced imports and some plant closures.

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

New capacity in Asia has yet to come on stream. Prices decreased slightly during Q3 and are expected to remain stable for the rest of the year. The new global capacity may lead to price reductions towards in Q4 and going into 2014. 

 

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels of Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Acrylonitrile demand is very weak and needs a global economic recovery. This will result in a tightening supply as producers reduce output, which in turn could tighten the Acetonitrile market.

 

Methylene Chloride

All plants are running normally and no major changes are expected at this time. 

 

AdBlue^® Urea Solution and Automotive Products

Urea prices have stabilised which will see a levelling of prices for AdBlue^® Urea Solution. 

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only licensed Irish manufacturer of this product, and we have begun producing product in Australia through a franchise partner.

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) now has added TOLUENE from ESSAR OIL (Formerly Shell Stanlow) to their portfolio of products and principals. If you require more information please contact me.

 

Q4 will be an exciting period for Brockley as many new developments come on stream:

¨       Our new AdBlue® plant will be commissioned of which will more than double our capacity.

¨       We will move our depot into a new purpose built warehouse on Johnston Logistics site.

¨       Our new web-based accounts package will go live.

 

 

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

Patrick Short

23^rd August 2013

 

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Brockley Group

Mob: +353 87 2426720
Tel: +  353 1 8392016
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie

 

 

June 2013 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in QI 2013. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

 

General:

Demand for most products continues to prove weak and producers are determined to cap

production levels. We are working in a European downturn and producers are relying on growth in emerging markets but Asian demand still remains weak. As one commentator said "we are just moving product around at the moment, rather than earning anything".

 

Methanol:

Methanol Q2 contract price was increase by €20 per tonne due to continuing tighter gas

supply chain caused by natural gas feedstock curtailments  in Trinidad, where around 15ºZo of the global supply originates and the inability to move Iranian molecules into Europe (about 12º7« of the global supply originates there). No major outages are forecast and plants are running normally.  European demand is stable and Q3 contract prices are expected to rollover or have a slight increase

 

Acetic Acid:

All major productions units are working normally and the market is well supplied. This good supply position has mitigated any Methanol price increases and resulted in a roll-over or slight increase in Acetic Acid prices for Q2. Barring any unforeseen outages or large increase in Methanol then Acetic Acid prices are expected to remain stable for most of 2013.

 

Ethanol:

Ethylene contract prices have dropped in April and May from the highs seen in March.

Producers have not passed on these decreases yet but are under pressure to do so. We may see a decrease going into Q3. Many US producers have cut production rates or idled plants

as a result of higher feedstock costs (corn) and this will result in higher Ethanol prices in the US. High quality synthetic material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2013.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

Even though Europe is structurally short on Ethyl Acetate, as it is limited to only one major

local producer, regular imports are expected to continue from India and Brazil and keep the market balanced. Prices have remained relatively stable during Q2 despite higher feedstock costs as suppliers try to gain market share. The new plant in Saudi Arabia has started during Q2 and this will balance possible shortages of Indian material as the government has decided to blend ethanol into fuel thus tightening raw material supplies. Q3 expectation is continuing stability.

 

Butyl Acetate market is balanced and prices remain stable.

 

Isopropanol

lPA supply/demand is balanced and will continue in that manner. Prices firmed at the end of

Q1 and into the middle of Q2 but are starting to fall back again which is more or less the

 

same pattern as 2012. Prices are expected to soften slightly going into Q3 and then take an upturn.

 

Acetone  & Ketones

Acetone market and prices are driven by Phenol production (co-product). Phenol production

rates are running at c.70% as demand is quoted as stagnant. There is upward pressure on Phenol prices as the key raw material, Benzene, is in tight supply and Benzene prices are at a record high. Acetone prices are expected to follow the same pattern as 2012 but from a higher base, therefore price increases are expected as supply tightens. New Acetone builds planned in Asia will not affect the European market. Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.

 

MEK/MIBK demand has improved. Prices are expected to increase slightly going into Q3.

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

European Hydrocarbons and aromatics will continue to remain volatile and prices could continue on a bumpy road upwards. Lighter crude feedstock into crackers has reduced output and Toluene could be diverted into producing Benzene which is in short supply. There have been fewer imports into Europe and therefore Toluene, Xylene and other hydrocarbons  are expected to fluctuate throughout 2013.

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

MEG prices have started to fall back again coming into the summer as the seasonal demand slackens off. European trade sanctions against IRAN have resulted in reduced imports and some plant closures.

 

TBF  (Tetra Hydro Furan)

New capacity in Asia has yet to come on stream. Prices increased slightly during Q2 and are

expected to remain stable for the rest of the year. The new global capacity may lead to price reductions towards the end of the year.

 

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to

remove high levels of Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Acrylonitrile demand is very weak and needs a global economic recovery. This will result in a tightening supply as producers reduce output, which in turn could tighten the Acetonitrile market.

 

Methylene  Chloride

All plants are running normally and no major changes are expected at this time.

 

 

AdBlue'  Urea Solution  and Automotive  Products

Urea prices have stabilised which will see a levelling of prices for AdBlue" Urea Solution.

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx

 

emissions. We are the only licensed Irish manufacturer of this product, and we have begun producing product in Australia through a franchise partner.

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) now have added TOLUENE from ESSAR OIL (Formerly Shell

Stanlow) to their portfolio of products and principals. If you require more information please

contact me.

 

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

Patrick Short 30"May 2013

 

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Brockley Group

Mob: +353 87 2426720
Tel: +  353 1 8392016
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie

 

ExchangeDefender Message Security: Check Authenticity