Q3 2010 Market Commentary

Q3 2010 Market Commentary

 

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q3 2010. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions and it has been very difficult to forecast given the fluctuations in Global markets we are all seeing.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

Methanol Q3 contract price has not yet been settled. Latest information to hand is that there is no real desire to settle the Q3 price quickly from either buyers or producers.  At present buyers are favouring a rollover of the Q2 price, whilst producers were indicating increases of EUR25-35/te as being an appropriate Q3 price. My guess is there will be a small increase of €5-10 per tonne. Demand for Methanol is quiet and no major outages are forecast.

 

Acetic Acid:

Supply has returned to normal and no major problems with supply. Acetic Acid prices have increased by €90-100 per tonne due to increased raw material costs.

 

Ethanol:

Food versus Fuel, the bio-fuel debate continues. Prices are expected to remain stable for H2 2010 even though there have been minor movements in ethylene prices. Brazil are rumoured to be seeking higher prices. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2010.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

INEOS (former BP Ethyl Acetate business) Ethyl Acetate plant is running at maximum rates with no production issues after their problems at the start of the year. Celanese have announced price increase of €50 per tonne in line with raw material increase and are trying to release more product into the market but there are some delays in shipping. Imports from Brazil, Sweden and Russia have slowed as there were concerns for use in the high quality and Pharma sector. 

 

Isopropanol

Prices have reduced slightly at start of Q3 due to faltering feedstock costs. Supply/demand is balanced and no major changes are expected.

 

Acetone & Ketones

As a result of much improved Acetone availability in Europe coupled with imports from USA and Asia, prices are starting to fall for the first time in several months. Demand into the main markets (bis-Phenol-A and MMA) remain strong although this could slow going into the holiday season. The net effect is that increased imports and slight fall in demand will result in a further erosion of prices during Q3. Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.

 

MEK is at record price levels due to limited supply and strong demand pushing prices up by a further €100 per tonne

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue therefore making projections very difficult. Demand into gasoline and aviation pool has been strong and therefore limiting product available to the chemical markets.  Prices are expected to fall slightly

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

MEG prices dropped slightly at the end of Q2 due mainly to a reduction in Asia spot prices and exchange rate factors. European supply is currently tight as we prepare to enter the antifreeze season and shutdowns at several EO plants could tighten supply. If MEG follows its cyclical pricing then there will be some increase in Q3. 

 

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

ISP's new plant is fully operational and they have no problems with supply. There are strong rumours that both BASF and Lyondell have declared Force Majeure in the USA and this will have an immediate impact on pricing. Q3 prices are expected to increase by €400 per tonne.

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Ineos have been able to introduce new technology after the global shortage in 2008 and can now produce Acetonitrile as first intent product along the traditional route.

Acrylonitrile demand may fall due to sluggish demand for downstream products and if producers' cutback production then this may cause tightening of the Acetonitrile market and therefore push up prices from their normal levels.

 

Methylene Chloride

Two unplanned outages have tightened the European market and are aiding pricing increase initiatives. Sellers have been pushing for increases but due to high stock levels have limited this. These outages will support plans to increase prices by €50-75 per tonne in Q3. 

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments.

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

 

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screen-wash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

 

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Brockley Group Ltd

Mob: +353 87 2426720

Tel: +  353 1 8392016

www.brockleygroup.com

Q1 2010Market Commentary

Q1 2010 Market Commentary

 

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q1 2010. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions and it has been very difficult to forecast given the Global recession we are all facing.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

Methanol Q1 contract price has increased by €11 from Q1. Sellers wanted a higher increase due to increased gas costs. Demand for Methanol is quiet and no major outages are forecast. Methanol is seeing slow growth of new sources of demand - dimethyl ether (DME), direct blending of methanol into gasoline, biodiesel and fuel cells.

 

Acetic Acid:

Supply has returned to normal and Acetic Acid prices have rolled over from Q4. No major problems with supply.

 

Ethanol:

Food versus Fuel, the bio-fuel debate continues. Prices are expected to remain stable for H1 2010 even though there have been minor increase in ethylene prices. Brazil are rumoured to be seeking higher prices. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2010.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

INEOS (former BP Ethyl Acetate business) have declared Force Majeure on Ethyl Acetate. They delayed their shutdown from mid 2009 to December 2009. However the plant failed to restart and they were supplying customers from built up stock, which is now depleted. Plant is due to start back up in late January or early February. Prices have increased substantially (over €150 per tonne) in January and higher prices are forecast for February/March until the plant is fully operational. Celanese are trying to release more product into the market but there is a delay in shipping. Imports from Brazil, Sweden and Russia have been seen but there may be concerns for use in the high quality and Pharma sector. 

 

Isopropanol

Producers have achieved small increases in Q1 on the back of higher feedstock and further increases may be sought on the back of strong demand and lower imports.

 

Acetone

As the recession affects the construction industry, the demand for phenolic resins is expected to decline sharply. Hence producers have cut back Phenol reduction and therefore shift the supply/demand balance of Acetone and consequently the acetone market will remain tight. Consequently prices are expected to rise slightly through Q1. EP-grade acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue therefore making projections very difficult. Oil prices are at a low for several years and while hydrocarbons would be expected to fall, this has not been the case. Deamnd into gasoline and aviation pool has been strong and therefore limiting product available to the chemical markets.

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

The MEG market is very tight as demand has increased significantly. Asian and Chinese prices have increased significantly in recent months and high prices are forecast well trough Q1 and into Q2. 

 

Glycerine

Glycerine prices are stable and European demand is balanced against production output and exports have decreased to China and US.

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

ISP's new plant is fully operational since November 2008 and any increased demand has been met by this increased production. Q1 has had a slow start and prices are falling slightly but are expected to recover in Q2 due to raw material increase. Lyondell have ceased direct production of THF and while they continue to market product, it is believed that they are taking material directly from another producer. Demand into the pharmaceutical area is ever increasing.

 

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Ineos have been able to introduce new technology after the global shortage in 2008 and can now produce Acetonitrile as first intent product along the traditional route. Prices have returned to their normal levels.

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments.

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

 

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screen-wash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

 

Best Regards

Patrick Short

Brockley Group Limited

Tel +353 1 8392016

www.brockleygroup.com

Q4 2008 Market Commentary

Q4 2008 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q4 2008. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions and has been very difficult given the Global recession we are all facing.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

Methanol:
Methanol Q4 contract price has rolled over from Q3 even though producers wanted a slight increase, however this is unlikely to happen in the near future as buyers want price stability going forward into 2009. Methanex are restarting a plant in New Zealand but will mothball another with overall increase of c. 0.5 million tonnes. They have also embarked on gas exploration in Chile to secure supplies for their 3 plants in Chile. MHTL have declared force majeure due to problems at their M5000 plant which is expected to be down for all of Q4. Methanol is seeing the growth of new sources of demand - dimethyl ether (DME), direct blending of methanol into gasoline, biodiesel and fuel cells.

Acetic Acid:
Supply has returned to normal and Acetic Acid prices have rolled over from Q3 or seen a very minor fall, due to the rollover in Methanol contracts.

Ethanol:
Food versus Fuel, the biofuel debate continues. Prices are expected to remain stable for the balance of 2008. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through Q4 especially after the TEREOS synthetic Ethanol closure in 2007.

Ethyl Acetate:
European production is back to normal and the sale of the BP Ethyl Acetate business to INEOS has been completed. Q4 prices are expected to decline increase on the back of raw material rollover and a decrease in demand due to the recession.

Isopropanol
Producers are seeking further increases on the back of  strong demand and lower imports. Prices are expected to remain stable however in Q4.

Acetone
As the recession affects the construction industry, the demand for phenolic resins is expected to decline sharply. Hence producers will cut back Phenol reduction and therefore shift the supply/demand balance of Acetone and consequently the acetone market will remain tight. Consequently prices are expected to rise by approx. 5-8%. EP-grade acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits
Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue therefore making projections very difficult. As oil prices fall due to lack of demand and lack of money, hydrocarbons are expected to fall quite significantly. The Toluene market is in over supply as less is being put into the gasoline pool and therefore more product is available in the chemical markets.

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
The MEG market has swung from being tight in Q3 to being well supplied in Q4 as production returns to normal in Saudi Arabia. Stable pricing forecast on the basis of good supply being balanced with strong demand into the antifreeze market.

Glycerine
Glycerine prices are under strong pressure and are on the decline. Availability is still very good. European demand is balanced against production output and exports have decreased to China and US.

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)
ISP's new plant is due on stream earlier than expected and should start in November. Strong demand will be met by this increased and prices are expected to fall by approx. €100 per tonne. Lyondell have ceased direct production of THF and while they continue to market product, it is believed that they are taking material directly from another producer. Demand into the pharmaceutical area is ever increasing.

Acetonitrile
Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. There are no commercial first intent producers of Acetonitrile. As demand for Acrylonitrile has plummeted, there is a global shortage of Acetonitrile and this is expected to remain the case well into 2009. The issue will be trying to secure supply rather than price !!!

Other News Items
Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments. Some of our most recent additions are:

FUMARIC ACID
TMOF (Tri Methyl Ortho Formate).
VAM (Vinyl Acetate Monomer)

As mentioned in our previous commentary, we have started producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screenwash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

Our Rathcoole manufacturing facility is undergoing upgrading, particularly with regard to BlueCat® Adblue® manufacturing and packing and the new facilities were officially opened by the Minister of Transport, Mr. Noel Dempsey T.D., in April 2008.

Best Regards
Patrick Short
Brockley Group Limited
Tel +353 1 8392016
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie

Q3 2008 Market Commentary

Q3 2008 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q3 2008. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

Methanol:
Methanol Q3 contract price has rolled over from Q2 even though producers wanted a  slight increase and this may happen in Q4. Methanex hope to restart their 3 plants in Chile but it could be end 2009 before this happens. Methanol is seeing the growth of new sources of demand - dimethyl ether (DME), direct blending of methanol into gasoline, biodiesel and fuel cells.

Acetic Acid:
Supply has returned to normal and Acetic Acid prices have rolled over from Q2 due to the rollover in Methanol contracts.

Ethanol:
Oil prices continue to provide opportunities for biofuels. Grain feedstocks will remain very high in 2008 and sugar/molasses have also increase due to poor harvest and cost advantages into animal feed. Given all this and higher ethylene costs on the back of record oil prices has resulted in an increase in Ethanol of approx. €50 per metric tonne and then stable for the balance of 2008. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through Q3 especially after the TEREOS synthetic Ethanol closure in 2007.

Ethyl Acetate:
European production is back to normal and the sale of the BP Ethyl Acetate business to INEOS has been completed. Q3 prices are expected to increase on the back of increased Ethanol/Ethylene costs.

Isopropanol
Producers have increased prices by 10-15% on the back of increased propylene and strong demand. Imports have been significantly reduced due to the weakness of the dollar and these are not expected to increase due to several shutdowns during Q3 and Q4 in North America. Prices have  increased and there may be a further push for higher prices in mid Q3.

Acetone
The acetone market has remained tight with volumes heading to the Far East where prices are reported to be high. Following Ertisa closure of one of their lines in early Q2, other producers have reduced production due to production economics. The main driving force behind the need to increase prices is that the historic economic balance between Phenol profits & Acetone losses has shifted dramatically of late. In short Producers simply cannot continue to sell Acetone at current levels as the losses on the product now exceed any profits made on Phenol production. Consequently prices have risen by approx. 5-8%. EP-grade acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits
Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue into 2008 and this will continue to make 2008 a very difficult year for aromatics producers and consumers alike. Oil prices are over $140 per barrel and Jet A1 (Kerosene) has gone through the $1400 mark to reach another record high (up 40% from 3 months ago) and continues to climb. The Toluene market has returned to normal but producers are getting better returns by putting product into the gasoline pool as the driving season commences rather than sell into normal markets. Consequently no let up in price increases on Hydrocarbons..

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
The MEG market has swung from being well supplied in Q2 to being very tight in Q3 due to some production problems in Saudi Arabia. Q3 prices have increased and this is expected to continue into Q4 as demand into the antifreeze market ramps up.

Glycerine
Glycerine prices are under strong pressure and are on the increase. Availability is still very tight and this applies to both crude and refined Glycerine and allocation of material remains a concern for most producers. European demand is higher than production output, higher prices in China and US are leading to increased exports leading to a shortfall of around 50kmt in Europe (European stock levels are running at 50-60% of their normal levels).

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)
Strong demand and reduced production continues to fuel increases in THF prices although prices are expected to stabilise from Q2 into Q3. China continues to draw on European & US THF production as demand into textiles increases. ISP has announced plans to double production at their Marl plant and this is expected on-stream in early 2009. It is believed that Lyondell have ceased direct production of THF and while they continue to market product, it is believed that they are taking material directly from another producer. Demand into the pharmaceutical area is ever increasing.

Other News Items
Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments. Some of our most recent additions are:

TMOF (Tri Methyl Ortho Formate).
VAM (Vinyl Acetate Monomer)

As mentioned in our previous commentary, we have started producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screenwash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

Our Rathcoole manufacturing facility is undergoing upgrading, particularly with regard to BlueCat® Adblue® manufacturing and packing and the new facilities were officially opened by the Minister of Transport, Mr. Noel Dempsey T.D., in April 2008.

Best Regards
Pat Short
Eirchem
A division of Brockley Group Limited
Tel +353 1 8392016
Fax+353 1 8392869
Mobile +353 87 2426720
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie

Q2 2008 Market Commentary

Q2 2008 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q2 2008. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

Methanol:
Methanol Q2 contract price has fallen by €195 per tonne from Q1 level even though spot prices were €130-150 pmt below the Q1'08 contract. I would expect that there will be a realignment upwards of the Methanol price in Q3. Problems continue in Chile with only one Methanex plant operational (3 plants closed) because of shortages in gas supplies.  Methanol is seeing the growth of new sources of demand - dimethyl ether (DME), direct blending of methanol into gasoline, biodiesel and fuel cells.

Acetic Acid:
Supply has returned to normal and Acetic Acid spot prices are softening in Q1 as a result. Prices are expected to fall in Q2 due to projected lower Methanol contracts.

Ethanol:
Oil prices continue to provide opportunities for biofuels. Grain feedstocks will remain very high in 2008 while sugar/molasses will remain relatively low. Given the high grain costs in Europe and US and the potential for increase in bioethanol uptake will mean a tendency towards higher prices, High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through Q2 especially after the TEREOS synthetic Ethanol closure in 2007. The prediction is for stable pricing through the rest of 2008.

Ethyl Acetate:
European production is back to normal. There is pressure to decrease prices in Q2 due to projected decreases in feedstocks, i.e. Acetic Acid, Methanol. As predicted in the last newsletter INEOS has agreed to buy the Ethyl Acetate and VAM business from BP. It is believed that Ethyl Acetate will be marketed by INEOS Oxide and VAM by INEOS Enterprises. The sale is expected to be complete by the end of Q1'08.

Isopropanol
Producers report that the market has grown tighter due to good demand and lower imports due to the weak dollar. Prices are starting to increase and there will be a further push for higher prices in Q2.

Acetone
The acetone market has remained tight with volumes heading to the Far East where prices are reported to be high. It is believed that Ertisa are closing one of their lines in March and will have very limited availability. INEOS although having started their newly extended line at Antwerp, were still operating at 65% capacity. Borealis also have some availability issues but this should not affect their ability to supply UK & Ireland. Producers say their calculations make no economic sense with high propylene prices and low Acetone values. They will either have to subsidise Acetone business with Phenol revenues or increase Acetone prices. EP-grade acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits
Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue into 2008 and this will continue to make 2008 a very difficult year for aromatics producers and consumers alike. Oil prices are over €100 per barrel and Jet A1 (Kerosene) has gone through the $1000 mark to reach another record high and continues to climb. The Toluene market appears to go against this trend as there are reports of a depressed market with low demand although this will change as the gasoline season starts. Producers are waiting on increased demand. Consequently a mixed message on Hydrocarbons, with demand dictating prices.

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
The MEG market has swung from being very tight to a well supplied market. Asian contract prices have fallen and this is being reflected in the European market. Q2 prices are expected to fall.

Glycerine
Glycerine prices are under strong pressure and are on the increase compared to Q4-2007. Availability is still very tight and this applies to both crude and refined Glycerine and allocation of material remains a concern for most producers. European demand is higher than production output, higher prices in China and US are leading to increased exports leading to a shortfall of around 50kmt in Europe (European stock levels are running at 30-40% of their normal levels).

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)
Strong demand and reduced production continues to fuel increases in THF prices. Prices are expected to stabilise in Q2. China continues to draw on European & US THF production as demand into textiles increases. ISP has announced plans to double production at their Marl plant and this is expected on-stream in early 2009. It is believed that Lyondell have ceased direct production of THF and while they continue to market product, it is believed that they are taking material directly from another producer. Demand into the pharmaceutical area is ever increasing.

Other News Items
Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments. One of the most recent additions is:

TMOF (Tri Methyl Ortho Formate).

We have also started producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screenwash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

Our Rathcoole manufacturing facility is undergoing upgrading, particularly with regard to BlueCat® Adblue® manufacturing and packing and the new facilities will be officially opened by the Minister of Transport, Mr. Noel Dempsey T.D., early in Q2 2008.

Best Regards
Pat Short
Eirchem
A division of Brockley Group Limited
Tel +353 1 8392016
Fax+353 1 8392869
Mobile +353 87 2426720
www.brockleygroup.com

 

Q1 2008 Market Commentary

Q1 2008 Market Commentary

 

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q1 2008. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

Methanol spot prices are currently €130-150 pmt above the Q4 contract price leading to expectations that the European Q1 contract price could increase by a similar amount. Problems continue in Chile with only one Methanex plant operational (3 plants closed) because of shortages in gas supplies.

 

Acetic Acid:

All Force Majeures have been lifted on Acetic Acid and derivatives but due to higher Methanol, prices are expected to increase by Euro80 pmt in Q1.

 

Ethanol:

Oil prices continue to provide opportunities for biofuels. Grain feedstocks will remain very high in 2008 while sugar/molasses will remain relatively low. Given the high grain costs in Europe and US and the potential for increase in bioethanol uptake will mean a tendency towards higher prices, High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through Q1. The prediction is for an upward movement in ethanol prices in Q1 and then stable through the rest of 2008.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

European production is back to normal although product remains tight as producers replenish stocks. There is pressure to increase prices due to increases in feedstocks, i.e. Acetic Acid, Methanol by €60 pmt.

 

Isopropanol

Slow demand and consumer resistance has resulted in a flat IPA market. However propylene increases in Q1 will mean a push for higher prices.

 

Acetone

Market supply remains tight but demand has been low. Producers were looking at firmer pricing for the New Year as they seek to recoup margins following persistent production problems in Q2 and Q3. Ineos has this week attempted to restart production at its 300,000 mt/year acetone Antwerp, Belgium unit, EP-grade acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.

 

Toluene and Hydrocarbons

Volatile Oil and gasoline markets have made 2007 a very difficult year for aromatics producers and consumers and 2008 will be equally challenging. Consequently the European market is expecting further increases due to rising crude oil and gasoline

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

Tight global supply has enabled producers to push prices increases and further increases are expected as strong demand in China continues.

 

Glycerine

Glycerine prices are under strong pressure and are on the increase compared to Q4-2007. Availability is still very tight and this applies to both crude and refined Glycerine and allocation of material remains a concern for most producers. European demand is higher than production output, higher prices in China and US are leading to increased exports leading to a shortfall of around 50kmt in Europe (European stock levels are running at 30-40% of their normal levels.

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

Strong demand and reduced production continues to fuel increases in THF prices (coupled with net raw material increases). Prices are expected to increase by€120-150 pmt in Q1. The mothballing of poly-THF plant in China (at significant cost) continues to draw on European & US THF production as demand into textiles increases. ISP has announced plans to double production at their Marl plant and this is expected on-stream in early 2009. It is believed that Lyondell have ceased direct production of THF and while they continue to market product, it is believed that they are taking material directly from another producer. Demand into the pharmaceutical area is ever increasing and the question will be can end-users secure THF for the production of their valuable API's.

 

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals - more news of this in the New Year.

We have also started producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

 

BP sale of its Ethyl Acetate and VAM business continues and an announcement is expected in early Q1. Any bets on the new owners (my prediction is INEOS).

 

 

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Eirchem

A division of Brockley Group Limited

Tel +353 1 8392016

Fax+353 1 8392869

Mobile +353 87 2426720

www.brockleygroup.com

Q4 2007 Market Commentary

Q4 2007 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q4 2007. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

Methanol spot prices have increased significantly in recent weeks due to problems in Chile. Only one Methanex plant is operational (3 plants closed) because of shortages in gas supplies.  A 1 million tonne per year plant in Russia will be on shutdown at start of October and the MHTL plant in Trinidad is on a maintenance turnaround resulting in further tightening of European supply. It is expected that European contract prices could increase by Euro50-70 pmt in Q4.

 

Acetic Acid:

Following the Q2 Force Majeure on Acetic Acid and derivatives by a US producer, Acetic Acid remains tight. Prices are expected to increase by Euro30-40 pmt in Q4 on the back of the projected Methanol increases.

 

Ethanol:

Demand in Europe remains strong especially into the EC bio-fuels programme although some producers are believed to selling the grain feedstock as they are getting a better return than converting it into Ethanol. INEOS continue to operate far from capability due to ongoing ethylene situation at Grangemouth so they will be very tight on product going into Q4.  There may be pressure to increase European prices depending on inventory levels.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

European production is back to normal after FM in US and problems in Q2 at UK producer. Product remains tight as producers replenish stocks and there will be pressure to increase prices due to increases in feedstocks, i.e. Acetic Acid.

 

Isopropanol

Consumers have resisted Producers efforts to increase prices on the back of propylene increases. Europe remains tight on product although the pick-up in demand after summer holidays has not materialised yet.  The result is that prices may increase during Q4.

 

Acetone

Most commentators are predicting a rising Acetone market. Supply-demand fundamentals will dictate value going forward and demand is strong. Ineos have a 2 month shutdown at their Antwerp plant but Borealis and Ertisa are producing at normal rates. EP-grade acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.

 

Toluene

European market is expecting increases as a result of rising crude oil and gasoline. Furthermore the onset of the driving season in the US will exert more pressure to push prices upwards.

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

Strong demand and reduced production continues to fuel increases in THF prices (coupled with net raw material increases and desire to improve margins). The mothballing of poly-THF plant in China (at significant cost) continues to draw on European & US THF production as demand into textiles increases. ISP have announced plans to double production at their Marl plant and this is expected on-stream in early 2009. It is believed that Lyondell have ceased direct production of THF and while they continue to market product, it is believed that they are taking material directly from another producer. Demand into the pharmaceutical area is ever increasing and the question will be can end-users secure THF for the production of their valuable API’s.

 

REACH - (Registration, Evaluation and Authorisation of Chemicals)

ARE YOU PREPARED???  As a user of Chemicals, you will need to supply information up the supply chain on how you use a substance supplied by a manufacturer or distributor. Expect to start receiving requests for information towards the end of 2007. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Eirchem

A division of Brockley Group Limited

Tel +353 1 8392016

Fax+353 1 8392869

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