Q3 2012 Market Commentary

Q3 2012 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q3 2012. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

Methanol Q3 contract price has been rolled over from Q2. Producers were seeking an increase due to the weaker euro and lost supply routes due to trade sanctions, whereas buyers were seeking a reduction due to poor state of the European and global economy. A roll over appears to be a good result, although there may be an increase in Q4. No major outages are forecast and plants are running normally. Methanex are planning to move an idled plant from Chile to US to avail of abundant natural gas supplies.

 

Acetic Acid:

BP has exited their force majeure after a syngas leak at the reformer in Hull during May and production is now returning to normal. Celanese are planning to build a Methanol plant in Clear Lake, Texas to take advantage of abundant natural gas supplies to provide feedstock to its acetyls complex. Q3 prices are expected to fall by €20-30 per tonne on the back of cheaper energy costs. Some Asian Acetic Acid plants are closed due to weak global demand

 

Ethanol:

Ethylene spot prices are falling after reaching a 4year record high in March 2012 due to a soft supply-demand balance. Producers have not passed on these decreases yet although there is pressure on them to do so. Bio-ethanol plants in US are shutting down as tax credits and tariff barriers are removed. High quality synthetic material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2012.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

INEOS Ethyl Acetate plant is running normally now after BP's FM on Acetic Acid in Q2. Prices are falling due to lower feedstock costs and sluggish demand. 

 

Butyl Acetate is in an oversupply situation and consequently prices are falling.

 

Isopropanol

IPA supply/demand is balanced will continue in that manner. Prices have fallen by c. €100 per tonne in the last 6 weeks and further decreases can be expected due to weaker propylene costs although the rate of decline will slow. Stocks are low but balanced, so any unplanned outage could have negative impact on prices

 

Acetone & Ketones

Ineos have restarted their plant after a scheduled shutdown in Q2. Borealis have a planned maintenance shutdown for 6 week in Q3 and there are also some scheduled maintenance shutdowns of smaller Acetone units in Europe during the quarter. Prices have fallen by €3-400 per tonne due to weak propylene and soft supply-demand balance although demand into the main markets (bis-Phenol-A and MMA) remain strong as does demand in China. New Acetone builds planned in Asia will not affect the European market.  Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.

 

MEK/MIBK is in tight supply in Europe and there is strong demand which is driving prices upward

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

Toluene, Xylene and other hydrocarbons are falling due to fall in energy prices and weaker demand.  They reached a six year record high at the end of Q1 2012 and are still €120-140 per tonne higher than they were 12 months ago

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

MEG prices have fallen steadily during Q2 and into Q3 due to a weak seasonal demand and lower feedstock costs. MEG plants in IRAN have closed due to US & European trade sanctions.

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

Lower raw material prices have reduced prices going into Q3 by c. €150-200 per tonne. New capacity in Asia is expected to come on stream in Q4 2012/Q1 2013 and this will lead to further price reductions towards year end.

 

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels of Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Acrylonitrile demand is relatively strong which should mean a balanced Acetonitrile market while Asahi Kasei are planning to build a new Acetonitrile plant in South Korea.

 

Methylene Chloride

DOW chlorinated solvents plant is still down after scheduled maintenance and customers have been put on allocation.  Producers are pushing for increases of €30-50 per tonne in Q3, while buyers are resisting this pressure for the moment. 

 

AdBlue^® Urea Solution and Automotive Products

Urea prices have stabilised which will see a levelling of prices for AdBlue^® Urea Solution. 

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

 

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screen-wash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

 

Industry News

TOTAL have bought out remaining shareholders of Fina Antwerp Olefins (FAO). The FAO site in Antwerp is now fully owned by TOTAL

BP has published their Statistical Review of World Energy and they have also published BP Energy Outlook 2012-2030.

If you would like more info on how to access these reviews, please contact me

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) now have added TOLUENE from ESSAR OIL (Formerly Shell Stanlow) to their portfolio of products and principals. If you require more information please contact me.

 

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

 

Best Regards
Pat Short
Brockley Group Ltd
Mob: +353 87 2426720
Tel: +  353 1 8392016
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie
www.ibec.ie/cdi

 

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Market Commentary Q2 2011

Q2 2011 Market Commentary

 

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q2 2011. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions and it has been very difficult to forecast given the natural disaster in Japan and political unrest in Middle East/N. Africa.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

Methanol Q2 contract price has been settled early, down €10 per tonne due in part to the earthquake in Japan reducing demand and cheaper gas prices in US resulting in mothballed plants being restarted.   The Q2 contract price reflects the need to bring European prices in line with Asia.No major outages are forecast and plants are running normally.

 

Acetic Acid:

BP has exited their force majeure which was in force for all of Q1, however Celanese have declared force majeure due to some issues at their Nanjing plant. This will tighten supply severely for all of Q2 and will lead to major increases in Acid and all acetyl derivatives. The issue will be securing product rather than price negotiation.

 

Ethanol:

Ethylene spot prices have increased by €400 since January and contract prices also have increased significantly. Producers are forcing through these raw material increases onto Ethanol resulting in monthly increases. April prices are €50-60 per tonne higher than January and  approx. €125 per tonne higher than December  2010. Food versus Fuel, the bio-fuel debate continues although some ethanol biofuel plants are due to commence production during 2011. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2011.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

INEOS Ethyl Acetate plant is running normally now after BP's FM on Acetic Acid in Q1 although material is very tight. Celanese have announced force majeure (see Acetic Acid above). A price increase of €60 per tonne in line with raw material increases and tight supply occurred in April and further increases are expected throughout Q2 while there is a restriction on raw materials. Imports from Brazil, Sweden and Russia have slowed as there were concerns for use in the high quality and Pharma sector. 

Butyl Acetate is on Force Majeure since October 2010 and there is no immediate sign of improvement in the supply chain.

 

Isopropanol

Planned maintenance shutdowns and production issues at European producers have tightened the supply chain dramatically and IPA supply/demand will continue to remain tight during Q2. Prices have increased by €4-500 per tonne since December 2010 and further increases can be expected.

 

Acetone & Ketones

Planned shutdowns in Spain and Italy have tightened the European market and consequently higher prices in the Med region has driven up prices across Europe. Prices are up nearly 50% since January. Demand into the main markets (bis-Phenol-A and MMA) remain strong as does demand in China. Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.

 

MEK/MIBK is being shipped from Europe to Asia to meet demand there after the earthquake in Japan stopped production. There are also some production issues in Europe resulting in limited supply and strong demand which is driving prices ever upward

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue therefore making projections very difficult. Demand into gasoline and aviation pool has been strong and therefore limiting product available to the chemical markets.  Prices are expected to increase as product is exported to Asia to cover shortfall from Japan.

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

MEG prices will increase during Q2 and also in the 2^nd half of 2011 due to a variety of factors. High demand, planned maintenance shutdowns in the Middle East and at least 2 plants closed in Japan has resulted in very tight supply. This is further compounded by restrictions by Western Governments on trading with IRAN.

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

Increasing raw material prices and exports to Asia are tightening supply in Europe resulting in prices increasing by €100-150 per tonne.

 

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Ineos have been able to introduce new technology after the global shortage in 2008 and can now produce Acetonitrile as first intent product along the traditional route.

Acrylonitrile demand is relatively strong which should mean a balanced Acetonitrile market. Raw material increase will put upward pressure on prices.

 

Methylene Chloride

Production issues in Japan  and delays in restarting plants in Europe have tightened the European market and are aiding pricing increase initiatives. Sellers have been pushing for increases of  €50-75 per tonne in Q2. 

 

AdBlue^® Urea Solution

Urea prices have stabilised which will see a levelling of prices for AdBlue^® Urea Solution. 

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments.

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

 

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screen-wash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

 

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Brockley Group Ltd

Mob: +353 87 2426720

Tel: +  353 1 8392016

www.brockleygroup.com

www.bluecat.ie

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Market Commentary Q1 2011

Q1 2011 Market Commentary

 

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q1 2011. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions and it has been very difficult to forecast given the fluctuations in Global markets we are all seeing.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

Methanol Q1 contract price has been settled early, up €38 per tonne. Some of the reasons behind the increase are as follows: Increased Chinese demand has increased Asian prices but more importantly is the restrictions by Western Governments on trading with IRAN. 33% of Methanol traded in Europe is of Iranian origin and therefore these restrictions have led to fears that there will be reduced trade in Methanol and therefore driving prices up. These fears have increased spot prices in Europe and subsequently increased global spot prices. No major outages are forecast and plants are running normally.

 

Acetic Acid:

No problems with supply. Acetic Acid prices should increase by €20-30 per tonne due to increased raw material costs.

 

Ethanol:

Ethylene spot prices have increased by €150 and January contract has increased by €105. Producers are forcing through these raw material increases onto Ethanol resulting in an increase of €65-90 per tonne. Food versus Fuel, the bio-fuel debate continues and Brazil are rumoured to be seeking higher prices. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2011.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

INEOS Ethyl Acetate plant is running at maximum rates with no production issues. However Raw material increases (Ethylene & Acetic Acid) will result in an increase of between €50-90 per tonne. Celanese have announced price increase of €70 per tonne in line with raw material increase. Imports from Brazil, Sweden and Russia have slowed as there were concerns for use in the high quality and Pharma sector. 

Butyl Acetate is on Force Majeure since October 2010 and there is no immediate sign of improvement in the supply chain.

 

Isopropanol

Propylene contract price has increased by €110 which would mean an increase of €80-90 per tonne on IPA. Supply/demand is balanced and this is expected to continue.

 

Acetone & Ketones

As a result of the Propylene price increase Acetone prices will increase by €80-90 per tonne. Planned shutdowns in the US and Asia during the year will also cause some tightening of availability. Demand into the main markets (bis-Phenol-A and MMA) remain strong as does demand in China. Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.

 

MEK/MIBK prices can also be expected to increase €70-80 and there is limited supply and strong demand.

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue therefore making projections very difficult. Demand into gasoline and aviation pool has been strong and therefore limiting product available to the chemical markets.  Prices are expected to increase.

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

MEG prices have steadily increased during the 2^nd half of 2010 due to high demand and tight supply in Europe as the antifreeze season is in full swing. Restrictions by Western Governments on trading with IRAN will also cause a tightness of material in Q1. Q1 prices are expected to increase by €100.  

 

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

ISP's new plant is fully operational and they have no problems with supply. There are strong rumours that both BASF and Lyondell are having supply difficulties in the USA and this will have an immediate impact on pricing. Q1 prices are expected to increase by €100-150 per tonne.

 

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Ineos have been able to introduce new technology after the global shortage in 2008 and can now produce Acetonitrile as first intent product along the traditional route.

Acrylonitrile demand may fall due to sluggish demand for downstream products and if producers' cutback production then this may cause tightening of the Acetonitrile market and therefore push up prices from their normal levels.

 

Methylene Chloride

Unplanned outages have tightened the European market and are aiding pricing increase initiatives. Sellers have been pushing for increases and these outages will support plans to increase prices by €50-75 per tonne in Q1. 

 

AdBlue^® Urea Solution

Urea prices have continued to rise due to raw material increases and production issues in Europe. As a consequence of the prices for AdBlue^® Urea Solution are expected to increase by 3 cents per litre where supply agreements permit. 

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments.

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

 

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screen-wash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

 

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Brockley Group Ltd

Mob: +353 87 2426720

Tel: +  353 1 8392016

www.brockleygroup.com

HYPERLINK "http://www.bluecat.ie"

 

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Q3 2010 Market Commentary

Q3 2010 Market Commentary

 

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q3 2010. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions and it has been very difficult to forecast given the fluctuations in Global markets we are all seeing.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

Methanol Q3 contract price has not yet been settled. Latest information to hand is that there is no real desire to settle the Q3 price quickly from either buyers or producers.  At present buyers are favouring a rollover of the Q2 price, whilst producers were indicating increases of EUR25-35/te as being an appropriate Q3 price. My guess is there will be a small increase of €5-10 per tonne. Demand for Methanol is quiet and no major outages are forecast.

 

Acetic Acid:

Supply has returned to normal and no major problems with supply. Acetic Acid prices have increased by €90-100 per tonne due to increased raw material costs.

 

Ethanol:

Food versus Fuel, the bio-fuel debate continues. Prices are expected to remain stable for H2 2010 even though there have been minor movements in ethylene prices. Brazil are rumoured to be seeking higher prices. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2010.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

INEOS (former BP Ethyl Acetate business) Ethyl Acetate plant is running at maximum rates with no production issues after their problems at the start of the year. Celanese have announced price increase of €50 per tonne in line with raw material increase and are trying to release more product into the market but there are some delays in shipping. Imports from Brazil, Sweden and Russia have slowed as there were concerns for use in the high quality and Pharma sector. 

 

Isopropanol

Prices have reduced slightly at start of Q3 due to faltering feedstock costs. Supply/demand is balanced and no major changes are expected.

 

Acetone & Ketones

As a result of much improved Acetone availability in Europe coupled with imports from USA and Asia, prices are starting to fall for the first time in several months. Demand into the main markets (bis-Phenol-A and MMA) remain strong although this could slow going into the holiday season. The net effect is that increased imports and slight fall in demand will result in a further erosion of prices during Q3. Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.

 

MEK is at record price levels due to limited supply and strong demand pushing prices up by a further €100 per tonne

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue therefore making projections very difficult. Demand into gasoline and aviation pool has been strong and therefore limiting product available to the chemical markets.  Prices are expected to fall slightly

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

MEG prices dropped slightly at the end of Q2 due mainly to a reduction in Asia spot prices and exchange rate factors. European supply is currently tight as we prepare to enter the antifreeze season and shutdowns at several EO plants could tighten supply. If MEG follows its cyclical pricing then there will be some increase in Q3. 

 

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

ISP's new plant is fully operational and they have no problems with supply. There are strong rumours that both BASF and Lyondell have declared Force Majeure in the USA and this will have an immediate impact on pricing. Q3 prices are expected to increase by €400 per tonne.

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Ineos have been able to introduce new technology after the global shortage in 2008 and can now produce Acetonitrile as first intent product along the traditional route.

Acrylonitrile demand may fall due to sluggish demand for downstream products and if producers' cutback production then this may cause tightening of the Acetonitrile market and therefore push up prices from their normal levels.

 

Methylene Chloride

Two unplanned outages have tightened the European market and are aiding pricing increase initiatives. Sellers have been pushing for increases but due to high stock levels have limited this. These outages will support plans to increase prices by €50-75 per tonne in Q3. 

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments.

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

 

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screen-wash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

 

 

Best Regards

Pat Short

Brockley Group Ltd

Mob: +353 87 2426720

Tel: +  353 1 8392016

www.brockleygroup.com

Q1 2010Market Commentary

Q1 2010 Market Commentary

 

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q1 2010. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions and it has been very difficult to forecast given the Global recession we are all facing.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

 

Methanol:

Methanol Q1 contract price has increased by €11 from Q1. Sellers wanted a higher increase due to increased gas costs. Demand for Methanol is quiet and no major outages are forecast. Methanol is seeing slow growth of new sources of demand - dimethyl ether (DME), direct blending of methanol into gasoline, biodiesel and fuel cells.

 

Acetic Acid:

Supply has returned to normal and Acetic Acid prices have rolled over from Q4. No major problems with supply.

 

Ethanol:

Food versus Fuel, the bio-fuel debate continues. Prices are expected to remain stable for H1 2010 even though there have been minor increase in ethylene prices. Brazil are rumoured to be seeking higher prices. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2010.

 

Ethyl Acetate:

INEOS (former BP Ethyl Acetate business) have declared Force Majeure on Ethyl Acetate. They delayed their shutdown from mid 2009 to December 2009. However the plant failed to restart and they were supplying customers from built up stock, which is now depleted. Plant is due to start back up in late January or early February. Prices have increased substantially (over €150 per tonne) in January and higher prices are forecast for February/March until the plant is fully operational. Celanese are trying to release more product into the market but there is a delay in shipping. Imports from Brazil, Sweden and Russia have been seen but there may be concerns for use in the high quality and Pharma sector. 

 

Isopropanol

Producers have achieved small increases in Q1 on the back of higher feedstock and further increases may be sought on the back of strong demand and lower imports.

 

Acetone

As the recession affects the construction industry, the demand for phenolic resins is expected to decline sharply. Hence producers have cut back Phenol reduction and therefore shift the supply/demand balance of Acetone and consequently the acetone market will remain tight. Consequently prices are expected to rise slightly through Q1. EP-grade acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.

 

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits

Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue therefore making projections very difficult. Oil prices are at a low for several years and while hydrocarbons would be expected to fall, this has not been the case. Deamnd into gasoline and aviation pool has been strong and therefore limiting product available to the chemical markets.

 

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)

The MEG market is very tight as demand has increased significantly. Asian and Chinese prices have increased significantly in recent months and high prices are forecast well trough Q1 and into Q2. 

 

Glycerine

Glycerine prices are stable and European demand is balanced against production output and exports have decreased to China and US.

 

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)

ISP's new plant is fully operational since November 2008 and any increased demand has been met by this increased production. Q1 has had a slow start and prices are falling slightly but are expected to recover in Q2 due to raw material increase. Lyondell have ceased direct production of THF and while they continue to market product, it is believed that they are taking material directly from another producer. Demand into the pharmaceutical area is ever increasing.

 

Acetonitrile

Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Ineos have been able to introduce new technology after the global shortage in 2008 and can now produce Acetonitrile as first intent product along the traditional route. Prices have returned to their normal levels.

 

Other News Items

Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments.

If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.

 

As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

 

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screen-wash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

 

Best Regards

Patrick Short

Brockley Group Limited

Tel +353 1 8392016

www.brockleygroup.com

Q4 2008 Market Commentary

Q4 2008 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q4 2008. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions and has been very difficult given the Global recession we are all facing.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

Methanol:
Methanol Q4 contract price has rolled over from Q3 even though producers wanted a slight increase, however this is unlikely to happen in the near future as buyers want price stability going forward into 2009. Methanex are restarting a plant in New Zealand but will mothball another with overall increase of c. 0.5 million tonnes. They have also embarked on gas exploration in Chile to secure supplies for their 3 plants in Chile. MHTL have declared force majeure due to problems at their M5000 plant which is expected to be down for all of Q4. Methanol is seeing the growth of new sources of demand - dimethyl ether (DME), direct blending of methanol into gasoline, biodiesel and fuel cells.

Acetic Acid:
Supply has returned to normal and Acetic Acid prices have rolled over from Q3 or seen a very minor fall, due to the rollover in Methanol contracts.

Ethanol:
Food versus Fuel, the biofuel debate continues. Prices are expected to remain stable for the balance of 2008. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through Q4 especially after the TEREOS synthetic Ethanol closure in 2007.

Ethyl Acetate:
European production is back to normal and the sale of the BP Ethyl Acetate business to INEOS has been completed. Q4 prices are expected to decline increase on the back of raw material rollover and a decrease in demand due to the recession.

Isopropanol
Producers are seeking further increases on the back of  strong demand and lower imports. Prices are expected to remain stable however in Q4.

Acetone
As the recession affects the construction industry, the demand for phenolic resins is expected to decline sharply. Hence producers will cut back Phenol reduction and therefore shift the supply/demand balance of Acetone and consequently the acetone market will remain tight. Consequently prices are expected to rise by approx. 5-8%. EP-grade acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits
Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue therefore making projections very difficult. As oil prices fall due to lack of demand and lack of money, hydrocarbons are expected to fall quite significantly. The Toluene market is in over supply as less is being put into the gasoline pool and therefore more product is available in the chemical markets.

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
The MEG market has swung from being tight in Q3 to being well supplied in Q4 as production returns to normal in Saudi Arabia. Stable pricing forecast on the basis of good supply being balanced with strong demand into the antifreeze market.

Glycerine
Glycerine prices are under strong pressure and are on the decline. Availability is still very good. European demand is balanced against production output and exports have decreased to China and US.

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)
ISP's new plant is due on stream earlier than expected and should start in November. Strong demand will be met by this increased and prices are expected to fall by approx. €100 per tonne. Lyondell have ceased direct production of THF and while they continue to market product, it is believed that they are taking material directly from another producer. Demand into the pharmaceutical area is ever increasing.

Acetonitrile
Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. There are no commercial first intent producers of Acetonitrile. As demand for Acrylonitrile has plummeted, there is a global shortage of Acetonitrile and this is expected to remain the case well into 2009. The issue will be trying to secure supply rather than price !!!

Other News Items
Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments. Some of our most recent additions are:

FUMARIC ACID
TMOF (Tri Methyl Ortho Formate).
VAM (Vinyl Acetate Monomer)

As mentioned in our previous commentary, we have started producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screenwash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

Our Rathcoole manufacturing facility is undergoing upgrading, particularly with regard to BlueCat® Adblue® manufacturing and packing and the new facilities were officially opened by the Minister of Transport, Mr. Noel Dempsey T.D., in April 2008.

Best Regards
Patrick Short
Brockley Group Limited
Tel +353 1 8392016
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie

Q3 2008 Market Commentary

Q3 2008 Market Commentary

Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q3 2008. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.

If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.

Methanol:
Methanol Q3 contract price has rolled over from Q2 even though producers wanted a  slight increase and this may happen in Q4. Methanex hope to restart their 3 plants in Chile but it could be end 2009 before this happens. Methanol is seeing the growth of new sources of demand - dimethyl ether (DME), direct blending of methanol into gasoline, biodiesel and fuel cells.

Acetic Acid:
Supply has returned to normal and Acetic Acid prices have rolled over from Q2 due to the rollover in Methanol contracts.

Ethanol:
Oil prices continue to provide opportunities for biofuels. Grain feedstocks will remain very high in 2008 and sugar/molasses have also increase due to poor harvest and cost advantages into animal feed. Given all this and higher ethylene costs on the back of record oil prices has resulted in an increase in Ethanol of approx. €50 per metric tonne and then stable for the balance of 2008. High quality material remains tight and this situation will continue through Q3 especially after the TEREOS synthetic Ethanol closure in 2007.

Ethyl Acetate:
European production is back to normal and the sale of the BP Ethyl Acetate business to INEOS has been completed. Q3 prices are expected to increase on the back of increased Ethanol/Ethylene costs.

Isopropanol
Producers have increased prices by 10-15% on the back of increased propylene and strong demand. Imports have been significantly reduced due to the weakness of the dollar and these are not expected to increase due to several shutdowns during Q3 and Q4 in North America. Prices have  increased and there may be a further push for higher prices in mid Q3.

Acetone
The acetone market has remained tight with volumes heading to the Far East where prices are reported to be high. Following Ertisa closure of one of their lines in early Q2, other producers have reduced production due to production economics. The main driving force behind the need to increase prices is that the historic economic balance between Phenol profits & Acetone losses has shifted dramatically of late. In short Producers simply cannot continue to sell Acetone at current levels as the losses on the product now exceed any profits made on Phenol production. Consequently prices have risen by approx. 5-8%. EP-grade acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.

Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits
Volatile Oil and Gasoline markets continue into 2008 and this will continue to make 2008 a very difficult year for aromatics producers and consumers alike. Oil prices are over $140 per barrel and Jet A1 (Kerosene) has gone through the $1400 mark to reach another record high (up 40% from 3 months ago) and continues to climb. The Toluene market has returned to normal but producers are getting better returns by putting product into the gasoline pool as the driving season commences rather than sell into normal markets. Consequently no let up in price increases on Hydrocarbons..

Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
The MEG market has swung from being well supplied in Q2 to being very tight in Q3 due to some production problems in Saudi Arabia. Q3 prices have increased and this is expected to continue into Q4 as demand into the antifreeze market ramps up.

Glycerine
Glycerine prices are under strong pressure and are on the increase. Availability is still very tight and this applies to both crude and refined Glycerine and allocation of material remains a concern for most producers. European demand is higher than production output, higher prices in China and US are leading to increased exports leading to a shortfall of around 50kmt in Europe (European stock levels are running at 50-60% of their normal levels).

THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)
Strong demand and reduced production continues to fuel increases in THF prices although prices are expected to stabilise from Q2 into Q3. China continues to draw on European & US THF production as demand into textiles increases. ISP has announced plans to double production at their Marl plant and this is expected on-stream in early 2009. It is believed that Lyondell have ceased direct production of THF and while they continue to market product, it is believed that they are taking material directly from another producer. Demand into the pharmaceutical area is ever increasing.

Other News Items
Brockley Group (Eirchem) is continuing to add to their portfolio of products and principals and we will keep you updated on developments. Some of our most recent additions are:

TMOF (Tri Methyl Ortho Formate).
VAM (Vinyl Acetate Monomer)

As mentioned in our previous commentary, we have started producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.

Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screenwash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.

Our Rathcoole manufacturing facility is undergoing upgrading, particularly with regard to BlueCat® Adblue® manufacturing and packing and the new facilities were officially opened by the Minister of Transport, Mr. Noel Dempsey T.D., in April 2008.

Best Regards
Pat Short
Eirchem
A division of Brockley Group Limited
Tel +353 1 8392016
Fax+353 1 8392869
Mobile +353 87 2426720
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie