Methanol:
Methanol prices have jumped up substantially in recent weeks due to force majeure in place at both AMPCO in Equatorial Guinea and MHTL's M5000 plant in Trinidad, taking a large amount of methanol out of the global market. Both plants are due to restart mid/end September but no indications when force Majeure will be lifted. Increases in Q4 NWE contract prices are expected to be approx. €170 higher than Q3.
Acetic Acid:
Due to high methanol feedstock costs as outlined above, Acetic Acid manufacturers could raise prices by €75-100/tonne in Q4.
Ethanol:
Ineos' KG cracker problems at its Grangemouth plant in Scotland, have resulted in difficulties sourcing ethylene feedstock for synthetic Ethanol production. Demand in Europe also remains strong especially for fermentation Ethanol into the EC biofuels programme. Supplies in Europe have tightened significantly and prices are expected to surge by approx. €200/tonne over Q4'2006 into Q1'2007.
Ethyl Acetate:
Following BP's force majeure at its Hull plant in early July, due to difficulties sourcing ethylene feedstock from Ineos' Grangemouth plant in Scotland, Ethyl Acetate supplies in Europe have tightened significantly with prices surging by approx. €300/tonne over July/August/September. BP's site is also due to shut for a month-long turnaround in mid/end September and a plant in Spain is also planning a maintenance shutdown shortly. Demand in Europe remains strong. This scenario coupled with rises in Acetic Acid prices due to methanol shortages could lead to further increases of approx. €100/tonne going into Q4
IsoPropanol:
Perceptions of increased demand coupled with propylene tightness and plans to bring down a plant in Germany for three weeks from mid-October to early November in that month has seen prices increase by €50-75/tonne. Looking forward, producers were reported targeting a Eur30-50/mt rise in the fourth quarter in anticipation of a hike in feedstock prices in Q4
Acetone:
An upward movement in acetone prices is anticipated going forward due to a mixture of planned and unplanned outages at production facilities in Poland, Italy and Germany. An unspecified maintenance shutdown in South Africa during autumn would result in limited imported volumes being made available in the European market. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical-grade acetone was said to carry a 10-20% premium over current normal-grade acetone.
BP has permanently closed its Hull, UK, unit at the end of July.
