Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q1 2013. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.
If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.
Methanol:
Methanol Q1 contract price has increase by €30 per tonne due to a tighter gas supply chain caused by natural gas feedstock curtailments in Trinidad, where around 15% of the global supply originates and the inability to move Iranian molecules into Europe (about 12% of the global supply originates there). No major outages are forecast and plants are running normally.
Acetic Acid:
All major productions units are working normally and the market is well supplied. This good supply position has mitigated the Methanol price increase and resulted in a roll-over or slight decline in Acetic Acid prices for Q1. Barring any unforeseen outages or large increase in Methanol then Acetic Acid prices are expected to remain stable for most of 2013.
Ethanol:
Ethylene contract prices have rolled over 3 months in a row resulting in stability in Ethanol pricing. In the US, expiration of tax credits and a drought-hit corn crop, with resultant higher feedstock costs have resulted in producers working to very slim margins. Consequently many producers have cut production rates or idled plants and this will result in higher Ethanol prices in the US. High quality synthetic material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2013.
Ethyl Acetate:
Even though Europe is structurally short on Ethyl Acetate, as it is limited to only one major local producer, regular imports are expected to continue and keep the market balanced. Prices will remain relatively stable or with slight increases and demand is slow.
Butyl Acetate market is balanced and prices remain stable.
Automotive coatings are a major market for solvents especially Butyl Acetate and if exports pick up then this could affect pricing.
Isopropanol
IPA supply/demand is balanced will continue in that manner. Prices are expected to follow the same pattern as 2012. Propylene prices are expected to remain firm and there may be increases towards the end of Q1 as there are several cracker shutdowns planned.
Acetone & Ketones
Acetone market and prices are driven by Phenol production (co-product). Phenol production rates are running at c.70% as demand for resins is very subdued and is expected to remain weak. There is also upward pressure on Phenol prices as the key raw material, Benzene, is in tight supply and Benzene prices are at a record high. Acetone prices are expected to follow the same pattern as 2012 but from a higher base, therefore price increases are expected as supply tightens. New Acetone builds planned in Asia will not affect the European market. Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.
MEK/MIBK demand is low due to the overall poor economic conditions and MIBK has had a particularly quiet second half of 2012. Prices are expected to remain flat and there may be increases towards the end of Q1 as there are several cracker shutdowns planned which may force up raw material prices.
Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits
European Hydrocarbons and aromatics will continue to remain volatile and prices could continue on a bumpy road upwards. Lighter crude feedstock into crackers has reduced output and Toluene could be diverted into producing Benzene which is in short supply. There has been fewer imports into Europe and therefore Toluene, Xylene and other hydrocarbons are expected to fluctuate throughout 2013.
Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
MEG prices have started to increase again as the seasonal demand has begun and there are higher feedstock costs. US & European trade sanctions against IRAN have resulted in reduced imports and some plant closures.
THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)
New capacity in Asia is due to come on stream in Q1 2013, but prices have rolled over for Q1. The new global capacity may lead to price reductions later in the year.
Acetonitrile
Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels of Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Acrylonitrile demand is relatively weak and this will result in a tightening supply as producers reduce output, which in turn could tighten the Acetonitrile market.
Methylene Chloride
Ineos ChlorVinyls restarted its plant towards the end of November after a slightly longer scheduled maintenance turnaround. No major changes are expected at this time.
AdBlue® Urea Solution and Automotive Products
Urea prices have stabilised which will see a levelling of prices for AdBlue® Urea Solution.
As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only licensed Irish manufacturer of this product, and we have begun producing product in Australia through a franchise partner.
Other News Items
Brockley Group (Eirchem) now have added TOLUENE from ESSAR OIL (Formerly Shell Stanlow) to their portfolio of products and principals. If you require more information please contact me.
If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.
Best Regards
Pat Short
Brockley Group
Mob: +353 87 2426720
Tel: + 353 1 8392016
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie
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