Q3 2012 Market Commentary
Please find attached some comments on where we think the markets will go in Q3 2012. Information is from a variety of sources including suppliers. These are just indications rather than exact predictions.
If you have any comments or we can help with anything else, please let us know.
Methanol:
Methanol Q3 contract price has been rolled over from Q2. Producers were seeking an increase due to the weaker euro and lost supply routes due to trade sanctions, whereas buyers were seeking a reduction due to poor state of the European and global economy. A roll over appears to be a good result, although there may be an increase in Q4. No major outages are forecast and plants are running normally. Methanex are planning to move an idled plant from Chile to US to avail of abundant natural gas supplies.
Acetic Acid:
BP has exited their force majeure after a syngas leak at the reformer in Hull during May and production is now returning to normal. Celanese are planning to build a Methanol plant in Clear Lake, Texas to take advantage of abundant natural gas supplies to provide feedstock to its acetyls complex. Q3 prices are expected to fall by €20-30 per tonne on the back of cheaper energy costs. Some Asian Acetic Acid plants are closed due to weak global demand
Ethanol:
Ethylene spot prices are falling after reaching a 4year record high in March 2012 due to a soft supply-demand balance. Producers have not passed on these decreases yet although there is pressure on them to do so. Bio-ethanol plants in US are shutting down as tax credits and tariff barriers are removed. High quality synthetic material remains tight and this situation will continue through 2012.
Ethyl Acetate:
INEOS Ethyl Acetate plant is running normally now after BP's FM on Acetic Acid in Q2. Prices are falling due to lower feedstock costs and sluggish demand.
Butyl Acetate is in an oversupply situation and consequently prices are falling.
Isopropanol
IPA supply/demand is balanced will continue in that manner. Prices have fallen by c. €100 per tonne in the last 6 weeks and further decreases can be expected due to weaker propylene costs although the rate of decline will slow. Stocks are low but balanced, so any unplanned outage could have negative impact on prices
Acetone & Ketones
Ineos have restarted their plant after a scheduled shutdown in Q2. Borealis have a planned maintenance shutdown for 6 week in Q3 and there are also some scheduled maintenance shutdowns of smaller Acetone units in Europe during the quarter. Prices have fallen by €3-400 per tonne due to weak propylene and soft supply-demand balance although demand into the main markets (bis-Phenol-A and MMA) remain strong as does demand in China. New Acetone builds planned in Asia will not affect the European market. Pharmacopeia grade Acetone is said to carry a 10-20% premium over normal-grade acetone.
MEK/MIBK is in tight supply in Europe and there is strong demand which is driving prices upward
Toluene, Hydrocarbons and White Spirits
Toluene, Xylene and other hydrocarbons are falling due to fall in energy prices and weaker demand. They reached a six year record high at the end of Q1 2012 and are still €120-140 per tonne higher than they were 12 months ago
Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
MEG prices have fallen steadily during Q2 and into Q3 due to a weak seasonal demand and lower feedstock costs. MEG plants in IRAN have closed due to US & European trade sanctions.
THF (Tetra Hydro Furan)
Lower raw material prices have reduced prices going into Q3 by c. €150-200 per tonne. New capacity in Asia is expected to come on stream in Q4 2012/Q1 2013 and this will lead to further price reductions towards year end.
Acetonitrile
Acetonitrile is a co-product in the production of Acrylonitrile and needs to be purified to remove high levels of Hydrogen Cyanide. This is normally done alongside the Acrylonitrile production unit as crude Acetonitrile is difficult to transport because of the HCN content. Most Acrylonitrile plants actually burn the crude Acetonitrile rather than purify it. Once purified the Acetonitrile output is approximately 2.5-3% of Acrylonitrile output and consequently the Acetonitrile supply/demand balance is totally governed by Acrylonitrile output. Acrylonitrile demand is relatively strong which should mean a balanced Acetonitrile market while Asahi Kasei are planning to build a new Acetonitrile plant in South Korea.
Methylene Chloride
DOW chlorinated solvents plant is still down after scheduled maintenance and customers have been put on allocation. Producers are pushing for increases of €30-50 per tonne in Q3, while buyers are resisting this pressure for the moment.
AdBlue® Urea Solution and Automotive Products
Urea prices have stabilised which will see a levelling of prices for AdBlue® Urea Solution.
As mentioned in our previous commentaries, we are producing Adblue® under our BlueCat® trademark. Adblue® is required in all new trucks using SCR technology to reduce NOx emissions. We are the only Irish manufacturer of this product. If you want any more information, please contact me.
Brockley Group Ltd also offer a range of automotive products in bulk and packed, including antifreeze, screen-wash, traffic film remover and will shortly add brake fluids also.
Industry News
TOTAL have bought out remaining shareholders of Fina Antwerp Olefins (FAO). The FAO site in Antwerp is now fully owned by TOTAL
BP has published their Statistical Review of World Energy and they have also published BP Energy Outlook 2012-2030.
If you would like more info on how to access these reviews, please contact me
Other News Items
Brockley Group (Eirchem) now have added TOLUENE from ESSAR OIL (Formerly Shell Stanlow) to their portfolio of products and principals. If you require more information please contact me.
If you require any product or catalysts, please call us and we will try to source it for you.
Best Regards
Pat Short
Brockley Group Ltd
Mob: +353 87 2426720
Tel: + 353 1 8392016
www.brockleygroup.com
www.bluecat.ie
www.ibec.ie/cdi
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